Future State Thinking Takeover

I chatted with Vaughen last week about innovation and design thinking. It was a great conversation, and it’ll appear in his upcoming book, He decided to turn our interview into a newsletter post for his newsletter. Now I’m sharing his newsletter in my own newsletter. It feels like newsletter inception, but I love it. Enjoy!

How to Design Innovative Experiences

Read time: 3.2 minutes

Imagine This…

You're deep into a service redesign project. The journey maps are complete, the pain points are known, and your team has just prototyped a new onboarding process.

Yet a few months after launch, the frustration remains real. Not much has changed.

People still leave early. Adoption is patchy. Stakeholders, whose expectations were high, now quietly start questioning the value of the work.

What's going on? It's clear that a new approach is needed.

According to Danny Seals - an experienced design expert and author of The Insightful Innovator - the answer lies not in the service but in the system surrounding it.

This edition explores how Danny uses systems thinking, co-design, and behavioural insight to create meaningful, lasting change in complex organisations.

You can also find more insights from Danny on LinkedIn.

(Vaughan Cheat Sheets and Infographic PDFs, the vault is at the bottom of this email along with where to sign up for the DUCTRI Playbook)

Build Your Future-state By Learning:

• Why systems thinking is critical for innovation (if you want innovation that sticks)

• How to make better decisions by sense-making and mapping consequences (avoid unintended results)

• Why co-design and stakeholder alignment are critical (not optional extras)

Move from Rescue to Root Cause

"You're pulling kids out of the river - but who's throwing them in upstream?" - Danny Seals (referencing Chip & Dan Heath, Upstream)

Systems thinking has gained prominence since the 1960s, but many innovation and change teams still treat it as a side note.

Danny sees it differently: it's the first move.

When redesigning anything from EVP (employee value proposition) to onboarding, Danny begins with three layers of sense-making:

• Human: what are people feeling, doing, avoiding?

• System: What feedback loops reinforce the status quo?

• Service: how is the experience playing out?

This perspective avoids the trap of surface-level fixes. It also keeps us from falling into what he calls "solution seduction"—where shiny ideas trump structural change.

One of his most potent metaphors is drawn from Upstream: it's not enough to keep saving drowning children - you have to find out who's throwing them in the river.

That shift in focus - from rescue to root cause - is the essence of upstream thinking.

(Want a proven way to deeply understand customers needs? Consider joining 225+ other smart innovators on the waitlist for The DUCTRI Playbook)

Making Sense of Humans, Services and Systems

"Innovation doesn't happen in isolation. It lives inside messy, dynamic systems where feedback loops, lag and unintended consequences often rule the day." - Danny Seals

Danny's approach includes four principles every innovation leader should have on speed dial:

1) Feedback loops are everywhere.

Reinforcing loops (e.g. overwork rewarded → burnout → more overwork) and balancing loops (e.g. burnout → wellbeing initiative → temporary recovery) shape the behaviours we see. Spotting them changes how we intervene.

2) The lag is real.

Systems don't change overnight. Think of planting a tree - no one expects fruit the next day. The same goes for culture and behaviour. There's always a delay between cause and effect.

3) Small tweaks can spark big shifts.

Systems are nonlinear. Move a desk, and two colleagues start collaborating. Redesign a form, and complaints vanish. Don't underestimate tiny interventions.

4) Incentives shape reality.

As Danny puts it, "Incentives shape behaviour more than any vision statement does." For example, consider the infamous Vietnam rat bounty - where rewarding handing in rats tails led people to breed rats for cash.

Without checking second and third-order effects, even good intentions can backfire.

To make this practical, Danny uses the Consequence Tree tool. You map a decision at the trunk and branch out into first, second and third-order consequences - positive, negative, or neutral.

It's a structured way to stress-test an idea before you commit.

And as Danny says, "Sometimes you realise you're solving the wrong problem altogether."

(Want a proven way to deeply understand customers needs? Consider joining 225+ other smart innovators on the waitlist for The DUCTRI Playbook)

Co-Design Isn't Just an Activity. It's a Mindset.

One of the strongest through-lines in Danny's approach is co-design - not as an activity, but as a mindset.

From early immersion (even getting up at 5 am to join workers for breakfast) to late-stage prototyping, Danny involves people at every step.

He draws a clear line: "if you do discovery with someone, bring them back into design. Their insight is not a one-off. They're part of the process."

He also uses a concept called naive experts - people who have your problem but not your context. Like a nurse helping with service design in banking. Or the Swinger's Club (yes, really) that sparked ideas about onboarding language and symbols.

"If everyone in your session looks like you, you're doing it wrong. You're designing in bias."

He also stresses early alignment with stakeholders - not just to tick a box, but to build trust and expose hidden assumptions.

His "Dare Canvas" (found in his book) helps project teams design arelationship experience first - what we're here to do, how we'll show up, and what happens if things go wrong.

Because without alignment, even great ideas will stall in the shadows.

Practitioner Insights

1. Map one feedback loop in your team or organisation. Ask: "What's being rewarded? What behaviours are reinforcing that?" You might be surprised where it leads.

2. Run a Family Consequence Tree for a new initiative. Sketch the first, second and third-order effects. Tag them as positive, negative or neutral. Then pause: are you solving the right problem?

3. Use signalling when sharing an idea. Don't just present. Say: "I'd love you to bounce this around - not critique it yet." Let the dreamer speak before the distiller arrives.

The future of innovation isn't in more ideas.

It's in designing better systems.

And if you want your change to stick - go upstream.

That's all from me today.

See you next week.

Here to spark your future-state thinking.

Vaughan

​Future-state Thinking​

Helping 35,230 smart people learn human-centred innovation

Follow me on LinkedIn and X​

P.S. Want to really unlock your innovation and impact potential even more?

​There are a few ways we can help:

• Grab your practical, proven resource. Join 225+ smart innovators on the waitlist for The DUCTRI Playbook, a simple and proven way to unlock human-centred innovation. Available mid 2025.

• Adapt to constant disruption and fast-paced change. Join the waitlist for the new DUCTRI Master Course. Where driven professionals become skilled human-centred innovators and change-makers. Available late 2025.

• Need help now? Contact me here for design thinking consulting, workshops and training (limited availability).

Vaughan's Vault:

P.P.S... As promised, click the button for my cheat sheets on innovation, strategy, and more!

Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.​

Final Note:

I hope your enjoyed Vaughan newsletter takeover, for me its one I look forward to every week and recommend to anyone interested in innovation

Thanks for reading if you’ve got thoughts to share just hit reply I always enjoy hearing from you Speak soon, Danny